ReFuelEU mandate meets the first 2025 SAF target — but the main challenge lies ahead
AeroMorning – John Smith – September 18, 2025
Europe’s aviation sector has cleared the first 2025 SAF (Sustainable Aviation Fuel) target of the EU’s SAF mandate, but the European Union Aviation Safety Agency’s latest data suggest that the harder part of the transition is still ahead.
In its ReFuelEU Aviation Annual Technical Report 2026 – 2025 in review, published on 17 September 2026, EASA provides its first full-year assessment of the EU SAF market based on data reported by fuel suppliers and aircraft operators.
2025: target exceeded, but with a fragile supply base
Fuel suppliers reported 39.3 million tonnes of aviation fuel supplied at EU airports in 2025, including 1.1 million tonnes of SAF, or 2.79%. This exceeded the first mandatory ReFuelEU threshold, which requires SAF to account for 2% of total aviation fuel consumed in 2025.
SAF was supplied at 121 airports across all 27 EU member states. EASA estimates that the use of SAF in 2025 reduced lifecycle greenhouse-gas emissions by approximately 3.77 million tonnes of CO₂ equivalent.
However, the composition of that supply highlights a significant structural dependency. Around 80% of SAF supplied was aviation biofuel, with Used Cooking Oil (UCO) the dominant feedstock. More significantly, 85% of the feedstocks originated outside the EU, with China accounting for 61% of imported feedstocks, followed by Malaysia and Indonesia.
EASA also reports that 86% of SAF supplied at EU airports was produced within the EU. The apparent contradiction is important: Europe has developed domestic SAF production, but that production remains heavily dependent on imported raw materials.
2030 is the real stress test
The next major step comes in 2030, when the overall SAF mandate rises to 6% of total aviation fuel consumed (approximately 2.8 Mt of SAF), alongside progressively increasing requirements for synthetic aviation fuels.
EASA assesses the potential EU SAF production capacity available by 2030 as follows:
| EU SAF production capacity | Volume |
|---|---|
| Current capacity | 1.5 Mt |
| Including facilities under construction and projects that have reached Final Investment Decision (FID) | 3.7 Mt |
| Including high-credibility announced projects | 5.5 Mt |
| Additional synthetic fuels | +0.6 Mt |
EASA considers the 2030 SAF target achievable. However, synthetic fuels remain the main challenge. EASA notes that the sector is still at an early stage: no large-scale synthetic-fuel facility had yet reached Final Investment Decision (FID), while around 50 projects were awaiting FID.
This is potentially the biggest structural bottleneck for the next phase of ReFuelEU. Commercial-scale e-fuel production requires not only substantial capital and long-term airline offtake agreements, but also large volumes of renewable electricity and green hydrogen. Aviation will therefore compete with other energy-intensive industries for access to low-carbon power and hydrogen.
The cost gap remains formidable
Price differentials remain a major economic challenge. EASA’s 2025 reference figures put conventional fossil kerosene at approximately €640/tonne, compared with €1,925/tonne for aviation biofuels. Synthetic e-fuels are significantly more expensive, with an estimated production cost of approximately €7,520/tonne.
This cost differential could become increasingly significant as the mandate rises. European airlines may face higher fuel costs than competitors able to operate from non-EU hubs using conventional jet fuel.
The cost gap could also create an incentive to maximise fuel uplift on return flights from non-EU airports, where ReFuelEU requirements do not apply, particularly on long-haul routes.
The strategic challenge
The 2.79% SAF share of total aviation fuel consumed in 2025 is therefore a genuine achievement, but it should not be mistaken for evidence that the structural challenge has been solved.
The 2025 data demonstrate that Europe can establish a functioning SAF market and exceed its first regulatory target. The challenge for 2030 is fundamentally different: Europe must scale production while reducing its dependence on imported feedstocks and bringing synthetic-fuel projects to investment decision.
The strategic priorities are consequently clear: secure sustainable feedstocks, accelerate investment, expand renewable electricity and green-hydrogen capacity, and narrow the cost gap with fossil jet fuel.
EASA’s first full-year assessment shows that the ReFuelEU mandate has successfully driven SAF uptake. The next four years will determine whether Europe can turn that regulatory demand into an industrial-scale SAF supply chain without undermining the competitiveness of its aviation sector.
