IBA HIGHLIGHTS HIGH AIR FREIGHTER DEMAND BUT MIXED LONG TERM POTENTIAL FOR AIRCRAFT TYPES
22nd May, 2020: IBA, the leading, independent aviation consultant, has highlighted the very high levels of current demand for air cargo in the current Covid-19 environment, but painted a more conservative picture of long term demand for certain aircraft types.
In a webinar entitled “Freighter Values and Lease Rates: What are my aviation assets worth?”, IBA illustrated the very high levels of utilisation in the global fleet of western build pure jet freighters with a capacity of more than 18 tons. Of a total fleet of 1,941 aircraft, 1,659 or 85% are currently active.
The most widely used aircraft in this active freighter fleet are the Boeing 757-200F of which there are 291 in operation, 267 Boeing 767-300Fs, 181 Boeing 777Fs and 171 Boeing 747-400 freighter variants.
This freighter fleet has been supplemented by 812 ‘preighters’ – passenger aircraft that are being used by 109 airlines to only carry cargo. The most popular aircraft types being used for this purpose are the Boeing 777-300/300ER representing 30% of the of the ‘preighter’ fleet, and the Boeing 787 family representing 26%.
Phil Seymour, President of IBA, says: “In normal times, demand for air cargo freighter capacity would be driven by global and economic growth. However, the Covid-19 pandemic has grounded huge numbers of passenger aircraft and with them cargo capacity, and this has inflated demand for freighters at a time when economies across the globe are struggling.”
“IBA believes this inflation in freighter demand will continue, even in these economic circumstances, until global air cargo capacity is rebalanced by the return to service of more passenger aircraft.”
“In the longer term, factors including demand, efficiency and the increased availability of younger aircraft for conversion as some passenger fleets are grounded permanently, will speed the retirement of some of the stalwarts of today’s freighter fleet such as the A300, DC10, and Boeing 747s without nose-loading capacity.”
Taking into account factors such as forecast demand, age, and availability of feedstock aircraft (aircraft available for freighter conversion), and using data from IBA.iQ, the leading platform for aviation intelligence,IBA forecasts that narrow body freighter values range from $3.8m for a 1987 built McDonnel Douglas MD-82SF to $29.19m for a 2001 built Airbus A321-200P2F.
IBA forecasts that values for widebody freighter aircraft range from $350,000 for a 1978 built Airbus A300F4 to $153m for a 2020 built Boeing 777-F.
Looking beyond the high demand caused by the Covid-19, IBA has identified a number of freighter aircraft types that it considers to be the most vulnerable including the Airbus A300-600F and A310-300F, Boeing 747-400BDSF/BCF and McDonnell Douglas MD-11F.
It views the Boeing 747-400F/ERF and 737-300F to be less vulnerable, and believes the more secure aircraft types to be the Airbus A321-200P2F, and a number of Boeing models including the 757-200F, 767-300F / 300ERBDSF, 737-400F, 737-800SF and 777-200F.
About IBAIBA has over 30 years’ experience in delivering independent, expert business analysis on the aviation sector. Established in 1988, it provides a wide range of services including IBA.iQ, the leading platform for aviation intelligence, asset valuations, credit risk, industry and sector research and analysis, asset management and technical inspections.
IBA advises prominent investment funds and banks, aircraft leasing companies, operators, manufacturers and MROs. In January 2020, IBA was named ‘Appraiser of the Year’ by Airline Economics. For more information, visit www.iba.aero