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eVTOL study: Private equity and venture capital professionals expect strong eVTOL order books but market consolidation

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In 2021 there were approximately 6,850 eVTOL orders (firm orders, options and letters of intent) worth around $26.1 billion, but new research  from Horizon Aircraft, an innovative leader in hybrid electric Vertical Take-off and Landing (VTOL) aerial vehicles, reveals that by 2025, 66% of venture capital and private equity professionals expect the industry’s order book to be over 8,000 for the year (please see the attached press release).  One in six (16%) believe it will be more than 10,000.

The study found that professional investors expect manned advanced air mobility aircraft to continue to dominate the order books. They accounted for around 80% or orders in 2021, and by 2025, 72% of private equity and venture capital professionals predict them to account for between 80% to 90%. One in five (21%) said they will make up around 80% of orders, and just 4% said it will be less than this.

However, despite a growing order book, 86% of the private equity and venture capital professionals interviewed expect the rate at which eVTOL concepts – there are currently around 700 – go defunct over the next three years to increase. One in five (22%) anticipate a dramatic rise. Similarly, they anticipate a fall in the number of manned advanced air mobility companies by 2025. There are currently around 300 of these companies, but in three years time 69% of professional investors surveyed said the number will fall. Around 18% think there will be 150 or fewer, and 31% believe there will be between 200 and 250. One in five (20%) anticipate there being between 250 and 300 manned advanced mobility companies. 

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