By AeroMorning on October 22, 2025

On 22 October 2025, Sweden and Ukraine announced the signing of a letter of intent (LOI) that, if carried through to contract, could result in Kyiv acquiring between 100 and 150 Saab JAS 39 Gripen E multirole fighter aircraft. The announcement came during Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s visit to Sweden and a tour of Saab’s facilities in Linköping, where Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson described the LOI as a major step toward “building a new and very strong Ukrainian Air Force.” 

The basic facts and timetable

The LOI does not itself create an immediate sales contract; rather, it lays out an intention and framework for negotiations and eventual procurement. Swedish officials indicated that deliveries — if and when a final agreement is signed and export approvals secured — would likely be staggered over a multi-year period, with industry estimates suggesting a delivery window measured in years (reports talk of a 10–15 year build-out scenario, with first possible deliveries several years after contract signature). Saab, Sweden’s defence industry and Gripen manufacturer, would be the prime contractor for production and sustainment. 

Strategic significance

For Ukraine, obtaining a large fleet of modern Gripen Es would represent a transformational upgrade in airpower. The Gripen E is a single-engine, multirole fighter designed for NATO interoperability, modern sensor fusion, and cost-efficient sustainment compared with some heavier Western fighters. A fleet of 100–150 aircraft would provide Ukraine not only with air-defence and strike capacity but also a durable, maintainable force structure that could be trained and expanded over time — assuming logistics, munitions, basing, training pipelines and political approvals from export control authorities can be resolved.

For Sweden and Saab, the deal would be a major export success, reinforcing Linköping as a production hub and deepening defence-industrial cooperation with Kyiv. It would also mark one of the largest single prospective fighter exports in recent European history. Observers note the political as well as material importance: Sweden’s backing signals strong European support for long-term Ukrainian rearmament and integration of European defence supply chains. 

Technical and operational considerations

The Gripen E is optimized for flexible basing, relatively low operating costs, and modern avionics (including active electronically scanned array radar and advanced mission systems). However, equipping Ukraine with such a fleet requires more than aircraft: training squadrons of pilots and maintainers, secure logistics for spare parts and engines, interoperable weapons packages, and hardened basing and air-defence integration. International partners would likely need to cooperate on training, munitions supply, and infrastructure upgrades. Analysts caution that converting a LOI into an operationally effective fleet will be expensive and complex, with political, technical and security hurdles to clear. 

Political context: diplomacy and regional reactions

The LOI arrives amid heightened diplomatic activity over the Ukraine war. In parallel to these developments, plans for a high-profile summit between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin in Budapest were reported as postponed or shelved amid diplomatic friction and disagreement over ceasefire terms — a development that underlines the fragile and rapidly changing diplomatic environment surrounding Ukraine. The Gripen LOI therefore takes place against a backdrop of both renewed efforts to negotiate and continued military pressure on the ground. 

European capitals are likely to scrutinize such a major transfer closely: export controls, NATO interoperability questions, and the risk of escalation always inform decisions about advanced combat aircraft transfers to an active combatant. Still, Sweden’s political decision to sign an LOI marks a significant shift in European willingness to contemplate large-scale, long-term rearmament for Ukraine.

Economic scale and industrial impact

A fleet of 100–150 fighters represents a multibillion-dollar industrial programme — a mixture of aircraft sales, long-term maintenance contracts, local logistics, and possible offset work in Ukraine or partnering countries. Saab and Swedish suppliers would stand to gain substantial industrial activity over a decade or more, while Ukraine would face the twin tasks of financing the purchases (likely via a combination of domestic funding, international loans/grants and frozen-asset mechanisms under negotiation) and scaling up a defence-industrial support base capable of sustaining the fleet. 

What to watch next

1. Formal export approvals and contract negotiations — A LOI is only the first legal/political step. Watch for statements from Sweden’s government, Saab, Ukraine’s defence ministry, and any third-party partners (training/maintenance partners) clarifying timelines and conditions.
2. Financing arrangements — How Kyiv will fund acquisition, spare parts, weapons and sustainment will be decisive. International financial mechanisms or donor guarantees are plausible.
3. Operational integration — Pilot training pipelines, basing upgrades, and integration with air-defence networks will determine actual combat value.
4. Diplomatic ripple effects — Reactions from Russia, NATO members, and other regional actors could influence both the pace and the final shape of any deal.